Nearly two-thirds of Ohioans polled for the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics say Democrats should control the White House, and a majority of Republicans think the Democrats will carry Ohio this fall.

Even self-identified independents in the poll are leaning Democratic, with 59.5 percent wanting a Democrat to reclaim the presidency after eight years and 61.9 percent saying they think Democrats will win Ohio this year.

The poll, released yesterday, also showed that the economy by far is the top issue for Ohioans, and that nearly two-thirds think the Democratic Party is better on economic issues than the GOP is.

John C. Green, director of the Bliss Institute at the University of Akron, said that although Democrats can squander their advantage, the numbers suggest that presumptive Republican nominee John McCain has some work to do in Ohio.

The poll "reveals the dimensions of the Republican challenges in Ohio and the dimensions of the Democratic opportunity," Green said.

Even so, he noted that the poll results on which candidates Ohioans preferred for the party nominations suggest that the 2008 race in Ohio may be close between McCain and either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

The telephone poll of 1,507 Ohio adults selected at random was conducted Jan. 10 through March 8. It will serve as a baseline to compare with follow-up surveys of the same people in July and October, Green said.

The poll found that despite the fact that nearly 75 percent of Ohioans think the economy is on the wrong track -- and a slim majority say the state overall is headed in the wrong direction -- job-performance ratings of key elected leaders improved from 2005.

For example, 53.5 percent of Ohioans think Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is doing an "excellent" or "good" job, up from 21.9 percent for former Republican Gov. Bob Taft in 2005.

Ratings also improved for the Republican-controlled legislature and Ohio Supreme Court. Public assessment of Ohio politics has grown more positive since 2006 as well, with 36.3 percent reporting a "high quality."

Green said that although Ohio has had divided government for the past 14 months -- and problems in the state have gotten worse -- there appears to be a sense that government is working better and more cooperatively.

The poll showed that although 65 percent of Ohioans think the Democrats are better on economic issues, they generally are split on which party is better on foreign policy, domestic policy and social issues.

Ohioans also are split on Iraq, with 40 percent saying the war was the wrong decision and troops should be withdrawn while 32.5 percent saying it was the right decision and troops should stay.

Fifty-three percent of Ohioans said they have "a great deal of confidence" that their presidential vote will be fairly counted, with Republicans more likely to trust the process than Democrats were.

The full poll results are at www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/AkronBuckeyePollSpring2008.pdf.

mniquette@dispatch.com