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Dispatch poll
Voters in Ohio like McCain a bit more -- at least so far
Sunday,  August 24, 2008 3:31 AM
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama stands in Springfield, Ill., with his newly named running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.
M. SPENCER GREEN | ASSOCIATED PRESS
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama stands in Springfield, Ill., with his newly named running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.
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Forget about swing voters. As Barack Obama heads to his party's national convention this week, he needs to convince his fellow Democrats that he should be president.

Republican John McCain holds a 1-point edge, 42 to 41 percent, in the first Dispatch Poll of the general election campaign. The Arizona senator's lead is well within the poll's margin of sampling error, plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. That means McCain could be ahead by as much as 5 points or Obama could be up by 3.

Regardless of the exact numbers, McCain is being bolstered by Ohio voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the state's March 4 Democratic primary and those who backed Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in 2006. McCain also is doing better among party loyalists: 86 percent of Republicans back McCain, while 74 percent of Democrats support Obama.

The McCain crossovers more than offset Obama's 4-point lead among independent voters, typically the key voting bloc in any election.

The GOP senator is winning over Democratic voters like poll respondent Ted General Jr., a 40-year-old ironworker from Cleveland who voted for Democrat John Kerry in 2004.

"I'm supporting the candidate I am, John McCain, because of his positive views on 'in-house' drilling and exploration of oil, also his take on the Iraq war. We should finish what we start," General said. He called Obama's stance on Iraq "quite disturbing."

Only half of the voters who say they backed Clinton in Ohio's primary are now supporting Obama. Just 55 percent of those who said they voted for Strickland two years ago are behind Obama now.

Barbara Paxton, 59, a homemaker from Findlay, said she still wishes Clinton were the nominee.

"If her name was on the ballot I would vote for her right now, no questions asked," said Paxton, a Democratic-leaning independent. "Since I only have two choices, really (in November), I am not going to put another Bush in there for 12 years, no way. You take the lesser of two evils."

Paxton said she doesn't dislike Obama; she just very much supported Clinton.

"It's like anything, when you really got your mind set on something and can't get it, you take the next best thing, not the worst thing," Paxton said.

Obama is attempting to placate Clinton backers by giving her (and former President Clinton) a prime-time speech at the convention and allowing her name to be placed into nomination. Whether that will be enough to bring her supporters into Obama's camp is one of the key questions for the remaining 10 weeks of the presidential campaign.

Not surprisingly, key to Obama's support are young voters and African-American voters. If they turn out in numbers higher than indicated in the poll, the Illinois senator likely will win Ohio.

"This country faces several challenges in the coming years and needs a fresh outlook on how to address those problems," said survey participant Jason Stewart, a 28-year-old accountant from the Cleveland suburb of Lakewood. "I feel Barack Obama is that person. Mr. McCain represents more of the same 'old' Washington politics."

But it's not just young voters seeking a fresh start.

Judith Hecht, 70, a retired research librarian/information specialist from Dayton, is voting for Obama because, "We need a change of administration. I am angry at the way that Republicans have handled the following issues: the Iraqi war, the environment, energy usage, the economy and finally their position on a woman's right of choice."

Not all McCain supporters are rock-solid.

"McCain's age is a concern," said Michael Stevens, 48, of Columbus, who is seeking employment because his data communications job moved out of state.

"His vice president pick is very important. He needs someone who can walk right into the job in case something happened to John McCain. With the stress of the job and his age, it's a big concern."

Should McCain's age (72 this week) and Obama's race play a role in the election?

" Should is irrelevant; age, race, gender, class and health are all issues," said Obama supporter Susan Williams, 56, a part-time receptionist and file clerk who lives in Riverlea.

"This is a competition, a contest, and both candidates will spin their age as an advantage, wisdom and experience versus energy and innovation. Race is a much more volatile issue, and as a person of color, Obama has the greater challenge."

The Dispatch Poll also found that many Ohioans haven't made up their mind on ballot issues and down-ticket races:

Democrat Richard Cordray holds a 10-point lead over Republican Mike Crites in the special election to succeed Marc Dann in the Ohio attorney general's office.

Ohioans are reacting favorably to the prospect of a casino proposed along I-71 between Columbus and Cincinnati, despite three sound defeats of similar issues since 1990.

A strong majority favors mandating at least seven sick days for Ohio businesses with 25 or more workers.

Ohioans are far from making a decision in either Ohio Supreme Court race, despite the presence of two incumbents. Although no party labels are on the ballot, both incumbent Republican justices are leading: Maureen O'Connor and Evelyn L. Stratton.

The poll of 2,102 likely Ohio voters was conducted Aug. 12 through Thursday.

Jonathan Riskind and Jack Torry of the Dispatch Washington bureau contributed to this story.

drowland@dispatch.com

The Dispatch Poll

The poll was based on returns between Aug. 12 and Thursday from 2,102 registered Ohio voters who say they intend to vote in the Nov. 4 general election.

The Dispatch obtained a computerized list of all registered voters in Ohio from the secretary of state's office. A Dispatch computer then randomly chose who would receive ballots, which were modeled as closely as possible after the state's official ballot layout.

Voters receiving the ballots were asked to describe themselves by party affiliation, age, sex, race, education, income, religion, union membership and how they voted in the 2006 governor's race and 2004 presidential contest.

Ballots of different colors were mailed to specific regions of the state so The Dispatch could ensure that each area was represented in proportion to its actual voting strength. The areas, patterned on groupings of the state's six major media markets, are northeast (20 counties), central (20 counties), southwest (eight counties), northwest (12 counties), west (14 counties) and southeast (14 counties).

The standard margin of sampling error in a poll of the size conducted by The Dispatch is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points in 95 out of 100 cases. This means that if a poll is conducted 100 times, in 95 cases the result will not vary by more than 2.2 percentage points from the result that would be obtained if all registered voters in Ohio were polled and responded. Error margins are greater for poll subsamples.

Like all polls, the Dispatch Poll is subject to error other than sampling error. Other sources of error can stem from people who change their mind after the poll was taken, unintentional bias in the wording of questions, data entry error or nonresponse bias. Nonresponse bias means that those who responded might not necessarily reflect the views of those who did not participate. The response rate was 18 percent.

The poll was designed, conducted and financed solely by The Dispatch.



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