The administration stressed that it is not recommending these reductions and that no decisions have been made. Rather, the analysis was meant to illustrate the impact of cuts that may be needed if the state doesn't get significant federal help.

Cabinet agencies were asked to identify cuts totaling 25 percent of their budgets, the amount of spending that would have to be slashed to cover a projected $7.3 billion shortfall in the two-year state budget that starts July 1.

The 13-page listing of agency cost-cutting scenarios includes laying off thousands of state workers and closing state facilities while raising college tuition and reducing funding for primary and secondary education.

Even the Ohio National Guard would be affected with cuts that "will severely strain our ability to maintain the readiness of our forces and to respond in a timely manner when needed."

It remains to be seen how large a shortfall the state may face or what cuts would be proposed. The analysis assumes addressing the budget gap solely with agency cuts based on current spending levels with no federal help.

Strickland has asked the federal government for $5 billion. The incoming chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama reportedly told Strickland that Ohio will get some assistance.

After Strickland released his analysis yesterday, Deborah S. Delisle, Ohio's new schools superintendent, sent an e-mail to local school leaders.

"It is important for you to know that NO decisions have been made about specific reductions," Delisle wrote. "The 25 percent reduction is an exercise to show what a reduction of this size might look like."

Still, leaders of the Ohio Civil Service Employees Association, the state's largest union, said they were left "all but speechless" by the hypothetical cuts, which they determined would close up to a dozen state facilities.

"While the magnitude of the fiscal crisis is of such proportions that every means necessary must be utilized to stem the tide of red ink, laying off thousands of state employees will jeopardize the health and safety of every citizen in every community in Ohio," Executive Director Andy Douglas said.

"Even if you laid off every state employee, from the governor on down, you couldn't come close to filling Ohio's budget gap."

The governor is not trying to unnecessarily alarm Ohioans, but he wants to help build support for federal aid and thinks it is important to make crystal clear how bad the situation could get, spokesman Keith Dailey said.

"You can't begin to work in a collaborative way to find solutions if you don't first have a clear understanding of the problem," Dailey said.

The move also is good political strategy because it can make unpopular cuts or other decisions -- even raising taxes -- more palatable, said John Green, a University of Akron political-science professor.

He noted that other governors effectively used the same strategy, but those who didn't paid a price, including former Gov. Bob Taft, who ridiculed a tax hike proposed by his re-election opponent in 2002 before backing higher taxes a few months later.

"There's some advantage to being brutally honest," Green said.

The 25 percent figure in the budget scenarios released yesterday is what would have to be cut from $28.5 billion in discretionary state spending to cover the projected $7.3 billion shortfall under the worst-case scenario.

For purposes of the analysis, the balance of the two-year, $52 billion budget was declared off-limits, including outlays for debt payments, tax relief, Medicaid (health care for the poor), legislative offices and the judiciary.

The Strickland administration has said that without significant help from the federal government and tax revenue from robust holiday sales, Ohio faces a $640 million shortfall in the current budget that ends June 30.

The administration already has made $1.3 billion in reductions and other adjustments to the current budget, but officials outlined earlier this month how state revenue forecasts have deteriorated in just the past 10 weeks.

The consensus forecast from the governor's council of economic advisers suggests that unemployment in the state will continue increasing until at least state fiscal year 2011, which starts in July 2010.

Officials blame the budget woes on the national recession, which has hammered manufacturing states such as Ohio especially hard. Experts don't expect much improvement in the economy until it becomes easier for companies and individuals to borrow money and consumers are confident about spending.

Strickland has said he wants to protect tax cuts, including a 21 percent reduction in income-tax rates enacted by Republicans before he took office, and says any tax increase in this economy would be counterproductive.

Dispatch Public Affairs Editor Darrel Rowland and reporters Catherine Candisky and Alan Johnson contributed to this story.

mniquette@dispatch.com